Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth 124(4), (2019): 3320-3334, doi:10.1029/2018JB017236.We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method utilizes 10 different continental margins that were mapped by high‐resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent Geographic Information System procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments, consistent with an earlier study of the U.S. Atlantic margin (Chaytor et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2008.08.007). Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood technique, and confidence intervals are determined using likelihood profiles. Pairwise comparison of size distributions for the 10 margins indicates that the U.S. Atlantic and Queen Charlotte margins are different than most other margins. These margins represent end‐members, with the U.S. Atlantic margin having the highest mean scar area and the Queen Charlotte margin the lowest. We demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from the landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. This study indicates that the shape parameter of the size distribution is similar among all 10 margins, and thus, the shape of the hazard curves is also similar. Significant differences in hazard curves among the margins are therefore related to differences in mean sizes and, potentially, differences in the duration of landslide activity.The authors gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments of this manuscript by Joshu Mountjoy, Tom Parsons, and anonymous reviewer. We also thank Yehuda Ben Zion for managing this manuscript and the scientists who provided the bathymetry data. Margin and landslide polygon shape files and information on bathymetry data sources are available at GSA Repository item number 2016187.2019-10-0

Size distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L11307, doi:10.1029/2006GL026125.We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, commensurate with their interpreted failure mode. The carbonate volume distribution and its associated volume-area relationship are significantly different from those for clay-rich debris lobes in the Storegga slide, Norway. Coupling this relationship with tsunami simulations allows an estimate of the maximum tsunami runup and the maximum number of potentially damaging tsunamis from landslides to the north shore of Puerto Rico

“Aftershock Faults” and What They Could Mean for Seismic Hazard Assessment

We study stress‐loading mechanisms for the California faults used in rupture forecasts. Stress accumulation drives earthquakes, and that accumulation mechanism governs recurrence. Most moment release in California occurs because of relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra Nevada block; we calculate relative motion directions at fault centers and compare with fault displacement directions. Dot products between these vectors reveal that some displacement directions are poorly aligned with plate motions. We displace a 3D finite‐element model according to relative motions and resolve stress tensors onto defined fault surfaces, which reveal that poorly aligned faults receive no tectonic loading. Because these faults are known to be active, we search for other loading mechanisms. We find that nearly all faults with no tectonic loading show increase in stress caused by slip on the San Andreas fault, according to an elastic dislocation model. Globally, faults that receive a sudden stress change respond with triggered earthquakes that obey an Omori law rate decay with time. We therefore term this class of faults as “aftershock faults.” These faults release ∼4% of the moment release in California, have ∼0.1%–5% probability of M 6.7 earthquakes in 30 yr, and have a 0.001%–1% 30 yr M 7.7 probability range

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 353 (2014): 31-54, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2014.02.011.Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found, suggesting a very low rate of hazard. However, the devastating 1929 Grand Banks tsunami along the Atlantic margin of Canada shows that these events continue to occur. Densely populated areas, extensive industrial and port facilities, and the presence of ten nuclear power plants along the coast, make this region highly vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis and therefore even low-probability events need to be evaluated. We can presently draw several tentative conclusions regarding tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Landslide tsunamis likely constitute the biggest tsunami hazard to the coast. Only a small number of landslides have so far been dated and they are generally older than 10,000 years. The geographical distribution of landslides along the margin is expected to be uneven and to depend on the distribution of seismic activity along the margin and on the geographical distribution of Pleistocene sediment. We do not see evidence that gas hydrate dissociation contributes to the generation of landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Analysis of landslide statistics along the fluvial and glacial portions of the margin indicate that most of the landslides are translational, were probably initiated by seismic acceleration, and failed as aggregate slope failures. How tsunamis are generated from aggregate landslides remains however, unclear. Estimates of the recurrence interval of earthquakes along the continental slope may provide maximum estimates for the recurrence interval of landslide along the margin. Tsunamis caused by atmospheric disturbances and by coastal earthquakes may be more frequent than those generated by landslides, but their amplitudes are probably smaller. Among the possible far-field earthquake sources, only earthquakes located within the Gulf of Cadiz or west of the Tore-Madeira Rise are likely to affect the U.S. coast. It is questionable whether earthquakes on the Puerto Rico Trench are capable of producing a large enough tsunami that will affect the U.S. Atlantic coast. More information is needed to evaluate the seismic potential of the northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. The hazard from a volcano flank collapse in the Canary Islands is likely smaller than originally stated, and there is not enough information to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of flank collapse from the Azores Islands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods to evaluate the tsunami hazard from the margin are available for application to the Atlantic margin, but their implementation requires more information than is currently available.The work was funded by the U.S.-NRC Job Code V6166: Tsunami Landslide Source Probability and Potential Impact on New and Existing Power Plants

Hydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 264 (2009): 41-52, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2008.09.005.Tsunami generation from the Currituck landslide offshore North Carolina and propagation of waves toward the U.S. coastline are modeled based on recent geotechnical analysis of slide movement. A long and intermediate wave modeling package (COULWAVE) based on the non-linear Boussinesq equations are used to simulate the tsunami. This model includes procedures to incorporate bottom friction, wave breaking, and overland flow during runup. Potential tsunamis generated from the Currituck landslide are analyzed using four approaches: (1) tsunami wave history is calculated from several different scenarios indicated by geotechnical stability and mobility analyses; (2) a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the effects of both landslide failure duration during generation and bottom friction along the continental shelf during propagation; (3) wave history is calculated over a regional area to determine the propagation of energy oblique to the slide axis; and (4) a high-resolution 1D model is developed to accurately model wave breaking and the combined influence of nonlinearity and dispersion during nearshore propagation and runup. The primary source parameter that affects tsunami severity for this case study is landslide volume, with failure duration having a secondary influence. Bottom friction during propagation across the continental shelf has a strong influence on the attenuation of the tsunami during propagation. The high-resolution 1D model also indicates that the tsunami undergoes nonlinear fission prior to wave breaking, generating independent, short-period waves. Wave breaking occurs approximately 40–50 km offshore where a tsunami bore is formed that persists during runup. These analyses illustrate the complex nature of landslide tsunamis, necessitating the use of detailed landslide stability/mobility models and higher-order hydrodynamic models to determine their hazard.Research conducted by Lynett for this paper was partially supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (CBET- 0427014, CMMI-0619083)

Crustal permeability changes inferred from seismic attenuation: Impacts on multi-mainshock sequences

We use amplitude ratios from narrowband-filtered earthquake seismograms to measure variations of seismic attenuation over time, providing unique insights into the dynamic state of stress in the Earth’s crust at depth. Our dataset from earthquakes of the 2016–2017 Central Apennines sequence allows us to obtain high-resolution time histories of seismic attenuation (frequency band: 0.5–30 Hz) characterized by strong earthquake dilatation-induced fluctuations at seismogenic depths, caused by the cumulative elastic stress drop after the sequence, as well as damage-induced ones at shallow depths caused by energetic surface waves. Cumulative stress drop causes negative dilatation, reduced permeability, and seismic attenuation, whereas strong-motion surface waves produce an increase in crack density, and so in permeability and seismic attenuation. In the aftermath of the main shocks of the sequence, we show that the M ≥ 3.5 earthquake occurrence vs. time and distance is consistent with fluid diffusion: diffusion signatures are associated with changes in seismic attenuation during the first days of the Amatrice, Visso-Norcia, and Capitignano sub-sequences. We hypothesize that coseismic permeability changes create fluid diffusion pathways that are at least partly responsible for triggering multi-mainshock seismic sequences. Here we show that anelastic seismic attenuation fluctuates coherently with our hypothesis

Importance of resource selection and social behavior to partitioning of hostile space by sympatric canids

Investigations into mechanisms of resource partitioning are particularly suited to systems where nascent interactive behaviors are observable. Wolf (Canis lupus) recolonization of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provided such a system, and we were able to identify behaviors influencing the partitioning of resources by coyotes (Canis latrans) and wolves. We observed coyote–wolf interactions immediately after wolf recolonization, when reemergent behaviors mediating the outcome of competitive interactions were detectable and mechanisms of spatial avoidance were identifiable. Although coyotes used the same space as wolves, they likely minimized risk of encounter by making adaptive changes in resource selection based on perception of wolf activity and potential scavenging opportunities. When exploiting carrion subsidies (i.e., wolf-killed ungulates), coyotes relied on social behaviors (i.e., numerical advantage in concert with heightened aggression) to mitigate escalating risk from wolves and increase resource-holding potential. By adapting behaviors to fluctuating risk, coyotes might reduce the amplitude of competitive asymmetries. We concluded coyotes do not perceive wolves as a threat requiring generalized spatial avoidance. Rather, the threat of aggressive interactions with wolves is spatially discrete and primarily contained to areas adjacent to carrion resources

DNA Fingerprinting of Pearls to Determine Their Origins

We report the first successful extraction of oyster DNA from a pearl and use it to identify the source oyster species for the three major pearl-producing oyster species Pinctada margaritifera, P. maxima and P. radiata. Both mitochondrial and nuclear gene fragments could be PCR-amplified and sequenced. A polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) assay in the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region was developed and used to identify 18 pearls of unknown origin. A micro-drilling technique was developed to obtain small amounts of DNA while maintaining the commercial value of the pearls. This DNA fingerprinting method could be used to document the source of historic pearls and will provide more transparency for traders and consumers within the pearl industry